Tuesday, June 29, 2004

However, if You Include Nader, Bush Is Actually Quite Competitive Within the Demographic 

Dept. of Shit You Couldn't Make Up If You Tried: Zemblan patriot J.D. forwards a Wall Street Journal op-ed by Larry L. Eastland, who maintains that legal abortion has given Republicans "a decided advantage in electoral politics, one that grows with each election" -- the reason being that most aborted fetuses would have grown up to vote Democratic:
The question arises: Who would these Missing Voters have been if they had reached voting age? What would their values have been? How would they have voted? What impact would they have had on the great debates in America, including the abortion debate? Here's what we know from several generations of social science research about children:

• They tend to absorb the values of their parents.

• They tend to have the same political views as their family (parents, siblings, immediate relatives) and share common views on political causes.

• They tend to develop the same lifestyle as their family.

I remember the guy at my 30th high school class reunion who looked over the people there and remarked, "I can't believe I came in person, while everyone else sent their parents!"
(This no doubt explains why politics are such a universally popular topic at the holiday dinner table. Yr. Mst. Hmbl. Monarch, for example, had close relatives who voted for George Wallace in '68; don't get me started. Don't even get me started.) Since, according to Eastland, "Democrats account for 30% more abortions than Republicans" and "the more ideologically Democratic the voters are (self-identified liberals), the more abortions they have," he calculates that:
• There are 19,748,000 Democrats who are not with us today. (49.37 percent of 40 million).

• There are 13,900,000 Republican who are not with us today. (34.75 percent of 40 million).

• By comparison, then, the Democrats have lost 5,848,000 more voters than the Republicans have.

In the actual popular vote for president in the 2000 general election in Florida, George W. Bush was declared the winner by 537 votes. But if the 260,962 Missing Voters of Florida had been present to vote, Al Gore would have won by 45,366 votes. Missing Voters--through decisions made in the 1970s and early 1980s, encouraged and emboldened by the feminist movement at the height of its power--altered the outcome of the U.S. presidency a generation later, in a way proponents of legal abortion could not have imagined.
I am not quite sure whether Mr. Eastland is exhorting Republicans to embrace abortion or Democrats to abjure it -- he's a tricky one! -- but his very stimulating argument makes me wonder: oughtn't we lefties, in light of the fact that the military skews heavily Republican, reconsider our knee-jerk opposition to war?

Hmm. I wonder which party eats the most luncheon meat.

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